The glass industry's profitability was tested in 2

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In 2008, the profitability of the glass industry was tested.

in 2007, when "rising" voices kept rising, the glass industry began to fall back from October last year, and the weak trend of decline has continued for the past two months. While the price trend of the glass industry has not been clear this year, the production cost is still rising, and the profitability of the whole industry will be tested

according to the data, since November last year, the price of the glass industry has shown a trend of accelerating decline. The average price of float glass in key contact enterprises is 74.87 yuan/weight box, down 4.87% from September, and the year-on-year increase has also dropped to 13.99% from 21.51% in September. After four consecutive months of year-on-year decline rarely seen in recent years, the monthly inventory of key enterprises changed from October to year-on-year increase, which was 10.23% and 17.69% respectively in October and November. Falling prices and rising inventories may mean the end of this year's glass boom

wangjinxiang, an analyst at industrial securities, told this newspaper that the price of the newly built plastic pipe laboratory in Baotou City in the glass industry has dropped recently, "The recent price adjustment in the glass industry is mainly affected by seasonal factors. In winter in northern China, many projects under construction are forced to shut down, and the relationship between supply and demand of glass changes seasonally. The experimental curve can be partially enlarged to show that there is no obvious excess investment in the market in terms of production capacity. In 2007, we estimated that the production capacity of the glass industry increased by 50million weight boxes, and the production capacity in 2008 was about 6000-70% Compared with the increase of 70million in 2004 and 2005, there is no sign of blind investment in the glass industry. On the premise of expanding market demand and the elimination of backward production capacity by the relevant government, the recent decline in glass prices should be temporary. "

however, zhouhuan, a researcher at United Securities, believes that seasonal factors are not enough to explain the changes in prices and inventories. He said that the data of the past three years showed that only the float glass prices in October and November 2005 showed a significant month on month decline; In 2006, which was also a warm winter, inventory began to decline sharply from September and continued until January 2007. Therefore, more new production capacity is the main reason for the recent price decline and inventory rise

it is understood that in the second half of 2007, 12 float lines and 40.44 million weight boxes of new production capacity were put into operation, an increase of 125% over the first half of the year. A total of 58.44 million weight boxes of new production capacity were added throughout the year. It is estimated that the excess flat glass production capacity in 2007 will be about 50million weight boxes. In addition, there are more than 40 production lines under construction and proposed. "If all the production lines under construction and proposed to be built are put into operation, it is bound to intensify the competition and the contradiction between supply and demand in the glass industry, which will have an adverse impact on the glass landscape." Guotai Junan researcher hanqicheng said

although the market holds different views on the price trend of the glass industry next year, it is an indisputable fact that the profitability of the glass industry is weakening. While the industry price reached a new high, the industry's profitability did not reach a new high. In August, 2007, when the sales price of the glass industry was the highest, the gross profit margin and profit margin of the whole industry at the end of August were 15.6% and 5.1% respectively, higher than the data of 6.4% and -4.5% in the same period of last year, and did not reach a new high since 2003

it is understood that about 60% of the cost of glass comes from heavy oil and soda ash. Under the situation that the cost of soda ash, heavy oil and other production raw materials will continue to rise, 98% of the materials in the flat glass industry will be recycled and returned to the production cycle, and the profit ability will be tested

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